Travel

Coronavirus and Booking Travel: Considering the Risk

Published

9 months ago

April 19, 2020

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Travel and travel planning are being disrupted by the worldwide spread of the coronavirus. For the latest updates, read The New York Times’s Covid-19 coverage here.

On March 12, the day after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic, Sery Kim, a lawyer in Coppell, Texas, noticed that the number of American Airlines AAdvantage miles needed to book a May flight to Barbados she had been eyeing dropped from 130,000 to 30,000 — a decrease of nearly 77 percent.

Thus set off a four-day hunt for future trips. In addition to Barbados, Ms. Kim purchased six round-trip Southwest Airlines tickets, starting later in March, to Washington, D.C., where she keeps an apartment for work. She paid $99 apiece for flights that normally cost upward of $183, with dates extending into September. She spent $93 on a late-April flight to Miami that usually costs around $330. Then she booked a safari vacation in July for about $900 round trip to Cape Town — about half what she paid for a South Africa flight in 2016.

Ms. Kim, 41, was indulging in what might be called flight arbitrage. Inexpensive airfare deals abound currently; couple those with newly relaxed airline change and cancellation policies and some travelers are seeing little-to-no risk in pointing, clicking and purchasing. They are betting that things will have improved enough to travel, and if they haven’t, they can roll their money forward into an even later trip.

“There’s an arbitrage opportunity that has never really existed in modern air travel,” said Scott Keyes, founder of Scott’s Cheap Flights, an online alert service with more than two million members. “Not only are fares super low, but to be able to cancel if you decide not to take the trip is rare. And there are absolutely people taking advantage of it — not in a pejorative sense, but literally by booking flights for when hopefully, fingers crossed, things are safer.”

To proceed cautiously amid travel advisories and border closures, Scott’s Cheap Flights is only promoting deals from July onward, and only for airlines waiving change and cancellation fees.

After her April tour through Japan was canceled, with all of her payments successfully recouped, Karen Burrows, a 56-year-old health care worker, used Scott’s Cheap Flights to purchase a $282 round-trip flight from New York City to Athens, Greece, departing in September.

“It’s a comfort — a consolation prize — and a way to look forward to something else after the disappointment of Japan,” said Ms. Burrows, who lives in Feura Bush, N.Y. “I’ll probably wait until August, and if it’s not looking like things are going to be healthy, I’ll make changes with the airline. I wouldn’t make any nonrefundable accommodations at this point, either.”

September prices for Athens flights from New York City often cost upward of $1,000. But Ms. Burrows has another reference point: Two years ago, she paid $446 for a flight to Athens from Newark, N.J. — another Scott’s Cheap Flights find.

“The comparison of real prices today versus reference prices that consumers have in their memories — ones they may even be unaware that they hold — is leading to this kind of purchase behavior,” said Priya Raghubir, a New York University Stern School of Business professor who studies consumer psychology and spending.

Before the coronavirus pandemic, Rina Baraz Nehdar, the editor in chief of the website L.A. Family Travel, had been watching round-trip flights from Los Angeles to Rome; August fares hovered around $900 apiece. In early March, she found $400 flights on Ovago, an online travel agency.

“Our trip isn’t scheduled until August so I pray we still get to go, and if so, I’m stoked about our great bargain. Since we can only travel during the time school is out, we typically have to pay premium prices. This was a nice relief for us,” said Ms. Baraz Nehdar, 45.

Cheap summer flights like the ones Ms. Baraz Nehdar found are expressly attributable to the coronavirus, said Mr. Keyes, of Scott’s Cheap Flights. Even though air travel has become generally less expensive in the last 40 years, summer has remained a much-sought-after — and therefore pricey — time to fly.

And with airlines poised to burn through $61 billion of their cash reserves during the second quarter of this year, according to a recent analysis by the International Air Transport Association, having customers on the books — even if they eventually cancel — is a strategic move.

“Selling cheaper tickets for future travel is a good way for airlines to generate sales activity and also start restoring consumer confidence for future travel, which gets shaken badly in events like this,” said Khalid Usman, senior vice president at Oliver Wyman, a management consulting firm.

Although inexpensive airfare affects yield — the average fare per passenger per mile — it also helps drum up demand. According to new data from Hopper, a travel-booking app that analyzes and predicts flight prices, round-trip domestic airfare is down about 41 percent from last year and 44 percent from 2018.

Hayley Berg, Hopper’s economist, has seen demand shift to the latter half of the year; demand for international travel doesn’t pick up again until August. Skyscanner, a travel-deals website and app, saw a slight uptick in flight bookings in the last week of March (compared to earlier in the month) for departures in August, September and October.

But hopeful travelers looking to take advantage of what is effectively a buyers’ market should still know what they’re getting into.

“While governments around the world are planning to provide support to airlines financially, some element of financial risk for travelers remains, such as airlines canceling flights or, in the worst case scenario, airlines going out of business,” Mr. Usman said.

According to a policy that was reiterated by the Department of Transportation in early April, passengers are entitled to cash refunds if their flight is canceled (or substantially changed) for reasons relating to the coronavirus. Facing travel advisories and decreased demand, many airlines have already significantly reduced their service.

But passengers who voluntarily cancel may have little choice but to accept a voucher, which might not cover the cost of a more expensive ticket down the line and often expires 12 months after the original booking date.

That’s why some experienced travelers, like Nelson Yuan, a Hong Kong–based investment strategist who flew around 300,000 miles last year for business, haven’t gone beyond window-shopping.

“Cash is fungible. At this point, many airlines are effectively not giving refunds despite their stated policies; they’re short on cash so they’re pushing credits,” said Mr. Yuan, 37. “In that case you’re basically giving them a short-term loan.”

Ms. Kim was forced to cancel her Miami trip (without penalty) because the hotel she had hoped to book is closed. But despite the widespread stay-at-home orders and quarantine-on-arrival advisories, including in Barbados and South Africa, she remains undeterred about her other plans.

“Unless the airlines cancel the flights, I’m planning on going,” she said.

Sarah Firshein is a Brooklyn-based travel writer. If you need advice about a best-laid travel plan that went awry, send an email to travel@nytimes.com — Sarah is also our Tripped Up columnist.

Follow NY Times Travel on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. Get weekly updates from our Travel Dispatch newsletter, with tips on traveling smarter, destination coverage and photos from all over the world.

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Travel

U.S. Will Require Negative COVID-19 Results From Airline Passengers Prior to Arrival – NBC 7 San Diego

Published

5 hours ago

January 25, 2021

Blabiz

The Biden administration is cracking down on international travel restrictions to help slow the spread of COVID-19. Beginning Jan. 26, travelers entering the United States must test negative for COVID-19 before boarding their flight, according to an executive order signed by President Joe Biden. The new guidelines align with recommendations by the CDC.

“Airlines must confirm that there is a negative test result for all passengers before they get on board and land in the U.S.,” explained Sabrina LoPiccolo, a spokesperson for San Diego International Airport. According to the CDC, tests must be taken within 72 hours, prior, to travelers’ flights.

“I have no problem coming with a negative COVID test if I chose to travel internationally. The only thing that scares me is if the tests aren’t 100 percent accurate,” said Sheri McKernan, who said she was traveling from Portland, OR.

“This new requirement actually does have some flaws,” said Eyal Oren, Ph.D., an epidemiologist and the Interim Director for the School of Public Health at San Diego State University. “For one, if you test negative you could still, from the time you test, still acquire the virus, so it’s very important even in that time window to quarantine yourself…The other issue that I worry about is that, at least for the U.S. there is an allowance for two types of general tests; one are the PCR tests that takes two or three days to come back, the other are the rapid antigen tests, and those are about 20% less effective than the PCR lab tests, so that’s a potential concern in the sense that you can get some false assurance thinking your negative when in fact you’d test positive with the PCR test that would pick up a lower viral load”

Other countries have been requiring travelers to provide negative test results before entry. Oren said it has proved to be effective.

“There have been some data coming out that’s showing that testing people three days out via the PCR testing, not the less effective rapid testing, is about 75 percent effective in keeping infected people off the plane in the first place,” said Oren.

The president is also expected to reinstate broader restrictions that were in effect much of the past year but rescinded by then-President Donald Trump days before his term ended. Those limits would affect non-U.S. citizens traveling from the United Kingdom, Ireland and much of Europe under what is known as the Schengen countries who share a common visa process. Travelers from Brazil would also be affected.

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Travel

Joe Biden to reinstate COVID-19 travel ban for most non-US travelers

Published

11 hours ago

January 25, 2021

Blabiz

Americans returning from the Thanksgiving break faced strict new coronavirus measures around the country Monday as health officials brace for a disastrous worsening of the nationwide surge. (Dec. 1)

AP Domestic

President Joe Biden on Monday is expected to reinstate COVID-19 travel restrictions to combat COVID-19 infections, a White House official who was not authorized to speak ahead of the official announcement confirmed to USA TODAY on Sunday.

The restrictions, which were in place for most of 2020, apply to non-U.S. citizens who have been in Brazil, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and much of Europe. Then-President Donald Trump rescinded the restrictions days before the end of his term.

“With the pandemic worsening, and more contagious variants emerging around the world, this is not the time to be lifting restrictions on international travel,” the now-White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Twitter last Monday.

“On the advice of our medical team, the Administration does not intend to lift these restrictions on (Jan.) 26. In fact, we plan to strengthen public health measures around international travel in order to further mitigate the spread of COVID-19,” Psaki added.

COVID-19 travel restrictions by state: See testing, quarantine requirements

More: Canada warns of possible changes to traveler rules, including hotel quarantine

Also Sunday, Reuters reported that Biden will impose a travel ban on South Africa, where a new potent strain of the virus has been discovered.

“We are adding South Africa to the restricted list because of the concerning variant present that has already spread beyond South Africa,” Anne Schuchat, the CDC’s principal deputy director, is quoted by Reuters.

The South Africa variant has not been discovered in the United States, but another variant – originating in the United Kingdom – has been detected in several states.

Last week, Biden issued an executive order directing federal agencies to require international air travelers to quarantine upon U.S. arrival. The order also requires that all U.S.-bound passengers ages 2 and above get negative COVID-19 test results within three days before traveling.

Contributing: The Associated Press

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Travel

Winter weather brings tricky travel conditions

Published

17 hours ago

January 24, 2021

Blabiz

A few flurries and light drizzle have been the story for Sunday, but this was just a preview of the active weather ahead on Monday and Tuesday.

Tonight remains relatively quiet. We could see a little more drizzle or a few light flurries, but they won’t impact any travel in any way. Monday also starts out on a quiet note, with just cloudy conditions.

The weather turns more active by Monday afternoon, and our forecast yesterday appears to be on track, with very few changes made. Snow will advance from the south, with snow most likely to start around 2-5PM south of Fort Wayne. By the evening, snow will make it into Fort Wayne and areas to the north (by 5-8PM). I do anticipate snow south of Fort Wayne to mix in with some rain and potentially sleet thanks to warmer air. This could create some ice accumulation, causing slick roads Monday night in areas where we don’t anticipate a lot of snowfall (especially in Grant, Blackford, and Jay counties).

Snow continues overnight Monday and through much of the day Tuesday. As a result, slick conditions are likely not only Tuesday morning but through the day and even into the Tuesday evening commute.

When the system exits, we expect greater snow totals north of Fort Wayne, in the 2-4″ range, with some locally higher totals possible. Totals will quickly diminish farther south, with 1-3″ likely in central areas (such as Fort Wayne) and less than 2″ for areas south of Fort Wayne due to a rain/snow mix that will lower totals. Regardless of how much snow is expected for your exact location, slick travel conditions are likely Monday evening and through the day on Tuesday.

I’ll have more details through the evening at 6 and 11PM on ABC21! We also plan to have team coverage Monday night and through the day Tuesday on-air, online and on social media.

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